By D.K. SINGH
New Delhi: Past electoral statistics may not be the right indicator of future voting patterns, but the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could find itself on a sticky wicket in the 2019 general elections, if the Congress, BSP, SP and some other regional forces join hands and manage to retain their 2014 vote shares.
An analysis of the constituency-wise Lok Sabha poll results in 2014 shows that the BJP’s tally in the Lok Sabha could have reduced by 64 — from its overall tally of 282 in the 543-member House — if a clutch of opposition parties had come together: The Congress, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) and the Janata Dal (Secular).
The so-called mahagatbandhan or grand anti-BJP federal front has remained a non-starter and therefore, the scope of the analysis by ThePrint is limited to those parties that have concluded or are holding negotiations to firm up state-specific alliances.
The Congress is set to shore up an alliance with the NCP in Maharashtra but the two parties had contested together in 2014 as well. The Congress and the DMK, which had contested separately in 2014, are likely to strike a seat-sharing arrangement in Tamil Nadu in 2019. It also does not get reflected in this report as the BJP is an insignificant force in the state.
The Congress and the JD(S) have already decided to jointly contest the Lok Sabha elections, while other regional forces from Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar are amenable to state-specific alliances with the Congress.
Grand opposition alliance in UP a nightmare for BJP: If the opposition unity in UP remains, the BJP could lose 49 of the 68 Lok Sabha seats it holds in the state today, an analysis of 2014 results shows.
The saffron party has big stakes in the state where it won 71 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats, while its ally, the Apna Dal, secured two seats in the last general elections.
The ruling party’s fortunes have been on the slide since its massive mandate in the assembly elections last year. It has lost three Lok Sabha bypolls — Gorakhpur (vacated by chief minister Yogi Adiyanath) and Phulpur (vacated by his deputy, Keshav Prasad Maurya) in March, and Kairana in May — since then. The SP and the BSP had fielded joint candidates in the first two, while the Congress joined them to field a united opposition candidate on an RLD ticket in Kairana.
The threat a united opposition poses to the BJP in UP was evident from the analysis of the constituency-wise data of the 2017 assembly elections too. The analysis, done by The Indian Express, showed that the BJP could lose 50 Lok Sabha seats in UP if the votes of the SP and the BSP were pooled together. UP is crucial for the BJP in its bid to retain power at the Centre in 2019.
Congress-BSP a potent combine outside UP too: The analysis of the 2014 election data shows that an alliance between the Congress and the BSP could have denied nine seats to the BJP outside UP — five in Madhya Pradesh, two in Chhattisgarh, and one each in Jharkhand and Punjab. The Congress and the BSP are currently holding negotiations for an alliance in the coming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh. Congress sources say that the scope of these talks could expand to assembly and Lok Sabha elections in other states as well.
Besides, the BJP would have lost two Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka had the Congress and the JD(S) been in alliance in 2014. The RJD and the BSP together could have also denied Bihar’s Buxar seat to the BJP.
AAP and Congress together could have dented BJP tally by 9 seats: Congress president Rahul Gandhi is learnt to be opposed to any alliance with the AAP as he holds Arvind Kejriwal responsible for the Congress’ decimation. But an analysis of the 2014 Lok Sabha results shows that the BJP would have lost 9 seats — 6 in Delhi and 1 each in Chandigarh, Rajasthan (Karauli-Dholpur) and Maharashtra (Chandrapur) — if these two parties had contested together.
The AAP is said to be willing to strike a deal with the Congress in 2019. A section of Congress leaders also believe that the party should have a tie-up with AAP in the Lok Sabha elections to defeat the BJP, after which they can go their separate ways. But Rahul Gandhi and Delhi Congress leaders have different ideas.
Split with the JD(U) no option for the BJP: Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar has been sending out signals and emissaries to the Congress and RJD camps that he is willing to make another political somersault and join hands with them in the Lok Sabha elections.
The Congress is open to the idea but the RJD remains unforgiving so far. Political observers believe Kumar’s tactics are meant to compel the BJP to part with more Lok Sabha seats for the JD(U) in 2019.
Contesting separately in 2014, the BJP had won 22 and the JD(U), two of the 40 seats in Bihar. The BJP is resentful of Kumar’s ambitions but can ill-afford to lose him. BJP president Amit Shah will visit Bihar on 12 July to sort out differences with the coalition partner.
The BJP’s desperation not to lose the JD(U) could be explained by the parties’ performance in 2014. The analysis of 2014 results shows that had the JD(U) joined the Congress and the RJD then, the BJP would have lost 12 of the 22 seats it won.
