New Delhi: The National Conference and the Congress on Tuesday won the Jammu and Kashmir election – the first in the former state in a decade – defying exit poll predictions of a hung Assembly.
The alliance claimed 49 of the union territory’s 90 elected legislature seats; five more will be nominated by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha under a contentious new rule.
But it is the NC that has emerged, by a country mile, as the majority partner with 42 wins to the Congress’ dismal six. The NC turned in a strong showing across the Kashmir region’s 47 seats.
The BJP – which has never ruled J&K on its own – finished with 29 seats, with most of that coming from the Jammu region. This is four more than it claimed in 2014 but fewer than it was expecting.
Ex Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP – which allied with the BJP after the 2014 election to form the last elected J&K government – was seen as a possible kingmaker this time. Exit polls gave it four to 12 seats – enough to break the predicted stalemate in favour of the Congress-NC combine.
However (and exit polls are often wrong), as it turned out Ms Mufti’s support was not needed.
In any case, the PDP won just three seats, 25 fewer than in the last election.
The 2024 J&K election also saw a big ‘first’ for the Aam Aadmi Party of Arvind Kejriwal, which claimed the Doda seat thanks to Mehraj Malik. The AAP was thumped in Haryana, Mr Kejriwal’s home state.
The Jammu and Kashmir’s People’s Conference also scored a win – Sajjad Lone retained his seat.
The remaining seven seats were claimed by independent candidates, continuing a trend of J&K voters ensuring that around 10 per cent of their lawmakers are, officially at least, non-aligned.
Vote Share Winners
In terms of vote share it is the BJP that is actually the big winner; the saffron party has claimed 25.63 per cent of votes polled – 2.65 per cent more than it managed in 2014.
The NC is second with 23.44 per cent and the Congress managed 11.97 per cent. For the NC this is around 2.67 per cent more than the last election, while its ally’s share slumped by six per cent.
The PDP got 8.87 per cent of the votes – 13.8 per cent fewer than its 2014 win.
Congress No 2, NC Is Alliance Leader
The National Conference fielded candidates in 56 seats and won 42.
Party leader Omar Abdullah – who contested and won from Budgam and the family stronghold of Ganderbal – has been picked as the next Chief Minister; his father and ex Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah, who earlier too said he did not want a fourth term, named his son to the post.
The Congress fielded candidates to 39 seats and won just six; in the 2014 election the party contested (on its own) 86 and won 12 seats, confirming a quite disastrous showing.
The BJP’s return of 29 in this election is four more than it managed last time.
The PDP won three seats but party boss Mehbooba Mufti’s daughter, Iltija, was not one of them. She contested the Bijbehara seat but lost, heavily, to the National Conference’s Bashir Shah Veeri.
The CPIM, allied with the Congress and NC, has also won a seat; Mohd Tarigami won Kulgam.
What Exit Polls Said
Exit polls gave the Congress-NC alliance an edge, but had it fall the wrong side of the majority mark of 46 seats. An aggregate of three indicated it would win 43 seats and the BJP 26.
The PDP was predicted to get between four and 12.
Row Over 5 Nominated MLAs
Meanwhile, in the build-up to this election there was controversy over the nomination of five members – who will hold “full legislative powers and privileges” – by Lieutenant Governor Sinha.
The power to nominate was granted after the Delimitation Commission increased the number of seats in J&K. The five will include two women, two Kashmiri Pandits, and a displaced person from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir – to the Legislative Assembly, increasing the total number of seats to 95.
The order was slammed by Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah, and the Congress and PDP. “This is an assault on democracy… and fundamental principles of the Constitution,” senior J&K Congress Ravinder Sharma said, while the NC and PDP slammed the “subversion of the people’s mandate”.
The argument was that this gave the BJP a shot at forming the government if it could not cross the majority mark on its own. Of course, that eventuality has now been ruled out.
