China’s population has declined for the first time in six decades, with the national birth rate for 2022 falling to a record low and the nation’s deepening demographic crisis threatening far-reaching implications for economic growth, South China Morning Post has reported.
Deaths outnumbered births in China as its overall population plummeted by 850,000 people – to 1.4118 billion in 2022, down from 1.4126 billion a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Tuesday.
Mothers in China had 9.56 million babies last year, a 9.98 per cent drop from 10.62 million in 2021.
The national birth rate fell to a record low of 6.77 births for every 1,000 people in 2022, down from 7.52 in 2021, marking the lowest rate since records began in 1949.
The national death rate was 7.37 per thousand last year, putting the national growth rate at negative 0.6 per thousand people.
China’s population includes 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, as well as servicemen, but excludes foreigners.
It does not include Hong Kong, Macau or Taiwan.
“China’s population declined the first time since 1961,” noted Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “The population will likely trend down from here in the coming years. This is very important, with implications for potential growth and domestic demand.”
High child-rearing costs, the new generation’s shifting ideologies on family and marriages, as well as the slowing economic growth amid China’s draconian coronavirus policies, were all blamed for catalysing the population decline.
Policies also shifted to pronatalism.
Local governments responded by launching a variety of measures to boost birth rates, including doling out cash awards, offering housing and education discounts, giving more parental days off, better social security benefits, and other perks.
Shenzhen is among the latest cities to incentivise childbirth via cash handouts. Couples having one to three children in the city will be eligible for subsidies totalling as much as 19,000 yuan (US$2,800). But how effective these measures will be remains unclear, and maternity surveys across the country have shown that incentives remain insufficient, and that most couples are simply unwilling to have a third child.
The UN also expects China’s population to drop to 1.313 billion by 2050 and fall below 800 million by 2100.
The demographic crisis arising from so few newborns, coupled with a rapidly ageing population, will undoubtedly have wide-ranging economic implications.
As the number of new births fall, China’s ageing crisis is deepening – China had 280.04 million people aged over 60 at the end of 2022, up from 267.36 million people or 18.9 per cent of the population at the end of 2021.
